When to Sell Shares on Football Index
Knowing when to Sell
With the rapid onset of COVID 19 and the suspension of football for 2 or 3 months, the activity on the Football Index Trader Group has largely focused on the issues of spreads and time to sell players to market. This led me to consider whether identifying when and how to sell players is now the most important skill for the football index trader.
Sell when others are buying
It seems obvious but this is the easiest time to sell your player quickly and hopefully for a profit. However, when the price is rising quickly it becomes difficult to consider selling for fear of missing out on profit by selling at the peak of the price.
Taken from www.indexpricealerts.com
2 of the hottest properties on Football Index this summer have been Mason Greenwood and Phil Foden. As you can see from the comparison graph above both have risen dramatically and followed very similar trajectories as they have performed well on the pitch.
However, both have seen slight declines since they peaked in price. Greenwood peaked at £10.09 on 10th July and Foden at £8.28 on 8th July. At the time of writing on the evening of 25th July they are trading at £9.55 and £7.85 respectively. The IS spreads for Greenwood are 6.5% and Foden 9.7%.
This has led to traders stating that it is taking too long for premium players to sell and citing these 2 as examples. They are premium players but based on the rapid growth traders have decided to take profits. It would have been well worth considering selling when the graphs above were rising steeply.
I don’t own either of the above but a recent premium player I have sold is Kai Havertz for £6.10. I sold to market in seconds due to the fact he had scored the opening goal on a matchday. He continued to rise to £6.85 on 26th May but since that date his price has declined back to £6.28 on 25th July. However, if I needed the money quickly today his IS is only £5.72. Based on his market price dropping over 50p there could well be a lot of shares in the sell queue at this time meaning a quick market sell could prove to be very difficult.
I am happy with the deal above because I utilized the funds to purchase Sergio Reguilion via the matching engine for £1.01. He is currently trading at £1.40 plus dividends have been earned totaling £46.08. On paper a bad deal on Havertz but overall a deal I am very happy with.
Promotions and Bonuses
Football Index’s timing could not be better for this article as they have launched a generous summer promotion on IPDs, media madness and additional gold days for the remaining European fixtures. Promotions are an excellent time to potentially get a decent price for that deadwood you want to move on or to get premium prices for players in your portfolio as traders can be more inclined to buy if they receive 30 days of 5 x IPDs for example.
It won’t guarantee a sale for every player but keep a close eye on price fluctuations especially as we get closer to the new seasons starting. An example over the last weekend was a goal for Cristiano Biraghi of Inter Milan which increased his price from £0.37 to £0.47 which allowed me to sell at market and utilize those funds to better use via the matching engine.
Weekly and Monthly Cycles
Typically, if you want the best price for a player then sell on a Friday or Saturday just before the weekend fixtures as traders look to maximize the 30 day IPD period. The Sunday/Monday sell off still occurs although overshadowed by other issues recently. This normally depresses prices on those days meaning you are unlikely to get the top price.
The same also occurs on a monthly basis. I have found the middle of the month to be the best time to buy as players are listed as traders need money. These prices tend to increase towards the end of the month as more people get paid and deposit into the index.
The increasing spreads since COVID 19 have been a cause for concern for traders which has not been alleviated since the introduction of the matching engine. Accusations that it’s a “buyers market” are not unfounded although where there is adversity there is always opportunity.
An external website I found via a twitter update this week is www.indexpricealerts.com which has a wealth of information and the best news is that it is free.
The website allows you to enter your own portfolio or search the entire market allowing you to search by a variety of filters including IS spread. This allows traders to quickly toggle between players to see whether instant selling at a 20% reduction is viable if you have a hot tip on an undervalued player who has a much bigger spread.
Lastly, after what has been a flat market apart from the rapid rises in Greenwood and Foden, the market should gather pace with the new seasons getting closer combined with the promotions and final stages of the European competitions.
Increased volatility is a great opportunity to both buy and sell at opportune times. The twitter screenshot of the Mbappe matching engine purchase when he limped off on Friday evening showed what quick thinking can yield.
Good luck with selling at the right price. Don’t forget that dividend cut off is now 4pm so a player getting a high score when the lunchtime fixtures return should see a spike in price.