Juventus have a huge month ahead in their retention battle for the Serie A title. They have 9 games to play in the next 30 days - providing an outstanding opportunity for traders looking to take their dividend winnings up a level.
Plenty of teams have stacked fixtures this summer, but all things considered re Goals, Assists and Clean Sheets - IPD winning stats - Juve players have an opportunity on the index that rarely presents itself. If PB dividends also come into play, given their track record of good PB scores, then shares in Juve players could also rise in the next month. So IPD and PB dividends could be a big deal going forward for the next 30 days.
Is it worth buying players for just 30 days?
Firstly, it entirely depends on your trading strategy. It's rare you will see significant capital appreciation (increase in share value) after just a month. Furthermore, if other traders are buying and selling their players with the same intention, then the likelihood of selling at a profitable price is low. The key to short-term trading is to not get greedy. When a player is in the profit, of course taking into account the 2% commission, then don't be afraid to cash-out. You never know when the peak will be of a player's rise. On top of that, trading short-term has risks. Buying shares in Juventus players now solely for the next month of IPD opportunity could have a negative impact on your portfolio. If the players value doesn't rise at all, or the dividends don't come in, you're stuck nursing a player without profit and a quiet summer could be in store. In short, be prepared to back out BEFORE the 9th match. Take a profit when you can if you don't want to risk holding the player after the IPD deadline..
Is Short Term Investing smart?
Short term flipping of in-form players is generally snubbed on Football Index. Traders have observed how capital appreciation of young stars has been the most lucrative opportunity this season. Short-term flipping of established dividend winners is the complete opposite of a wonderkid longterm hold - but it actually makes sense if you do it correctly.
The reason a player's value goes up is in anticipation of dividends one day. Nobody would be buying Foden, Cherki, Bellingham or Greenwood if they didn't believe that dividends could be won. It's become too obvious now that even the more experienced traders are missing the opportunity to capitalise on short term gains and actually win the dividends on offer today. The focus has shifted to long-term, Football Manager Esque investments, waiting on a three year wonderkid hold to emerge in the rumour mill. But money can be won in just 30 days with very little capital appreciation by utilising the dividends. Usually, there are perhaps 4 games in the 30 day IPD period so it's not usually considered a money-maker. But doubling the number of matches during this period offers good dividend returns if your player is in form.
How much money can I earn?
In comparison to a longterm wonderkid hold, you're not going to see a 300% ROI in the next 30 days. So let that bubble burst now before you get hopes up. However, good money - in cash dividends - is still on offer in the short term.
£0.01 per goal (Forward/Midfield)
£0.01 per assist (Any Position)
£0.02 per goal (Defender)
£0.01 per clean sheet (Defender)
Remember defenders include GKs.
So let's hypothesise a little, taking Dybala as an example. Dybala has already seen a big rise in anticipation of this month as he hit Top Forward last week in a bronze matchday, so it's a great case study to analyse why people are perhaps onboarding right now.
In 26 appearances, he's scored 9 and assisted 9 in Serie A. That's 18 involvements in 26 appearances - 0.7 per game. In 9 games, we'd therefore expect 6+ goal involvements. That's not even accounting for form. He's actually scored in both games since the return of Serie A. 2 for 2.
So £0.06 in IPD per share is expected, but it wouldn't be all that surprising to see him score or assist every game - making it £0.09 per share this month. That covers the commission if you were to sell at the same price with no capital appreciation.
Then you account for PB. Dybala has a PB max of 340 and an average of 130 this season. He's a proven dividend winner. In fact, he's a PB dream. £0.29 in PB this season. He's also won £0.12 in media buzz, but we'll ignore media for now, although it's always a bonus in short-term trading as it hugely helps with capital appreciation too!
PB-wise, he's won Top Forward on 4 occasions this season, three of which have been in Serie A on a gold, silver and a bronze match day. This, in short, means he's not a lucky PB winner with a one-off standout performance. He's winning dividends across different competitions on different Football Index matchdays. Furthermore, 2 of the 3 matchdays he's won, he's taken Star Player.
In total, he's won £0.24 across three Serie A matchdays. Out of 26 matchdays he's featured in Serie A, he's taken Top Forward 3 times. Once every 8.66 games. This means in the next 9 games, he's due to win PB dividends once again. Let's play it middle of the park and say he wins a silver matchday Top Forward and Star Player; something he's done once this season already. That's £0.08 per share in PB.
Combining IPD and PB expected over the next 30 days, Dybala would provide £0.14 in dividends per share before Capital Appreciation is factored in.
Although Dybala is 26 and far from being a 'youngster', his capital appreciation is still desirable as the next 3 years look a dead-certain top European striker. Looking at his Price History, for every occasion he's won PB, he's risen approximately £0.30. Usually it plateaus out between each occasion, but the beauty of the next 30 days is that there isn't such a lull - games are coming thick and fast and players will not be looking to offload proven dividend winners. This is even more the case with the imminent dividend revision in July.
Investing in Dybala now at £4.37 per share, you could predict £0.06 in IPD, £0.08 in PB and £0.20+ in Capital Appreciation. That takes your £4.37 buy value to £4.69 in less than 30 days. The best part? It's in demand, proven winnings, not hype. You've got the dividends in cash, you're not locked up by spreads, and after the 30 days you could be holding a player of far greater value. This is only a conservative prediction of one player who's clearly in demand right now. Of course, value could drop, as could form. But if there was ever a time to invest in a player because of form, it's now right? Maximum games, maximum dividend potential in the next 30 days.
Who else in Juventus' Squad could be a good option?
With Pjanic out the door, the reins are likely to be given to Bentancur in a pivotal central role for the rest of the season. He's been outstanding this term and was leading the team in assists with 7 before Serie A returned. He's sat at just £1.33, so IPDs really contribute to decent returns. A couple of good performances could see assists in the next 30 days.
The Italian wideman has had a torrid couple of seasons at Juve, struggling for minutes and being played across a host of different roles. Since the return, he's started in his natural wide right position, registering an assist and earning good minutes. Given the form Juve are in, it'd be harsh to see Bernardeschi demoted to the bench again for the coming 9 games. An assist or two could see IPDs coming in, and at £0.88 there's not much ground to fall down. He's also won PB before this season, playing for Italy as a winger. Now he's back on the wings, it's worth a look to see if he could rack up some offensive highlights and gain a little momentum. Any PB dividends would do the 26 year old a lot of good on the index and potentially start to generate the transfer buzz that has surrounded him for the past 12 months. In the next 30 days, we could see small dividends and capital appreciation, but as a % of his buy price it'd be as equally significant as the higher end players at Juve such as Dybala and Ronaldo.
Mathijs De Ligt
Centre-backs aren't the most attractive investments on the index, though ball-playing commanders and goal-scoring threats are a huge box ticked for defender PB divs. De Ligt does both of these in a side that has a good defensive record. As such, he averages a clean sheet every 3 games minimum. In the next 9 games during this IPD window, he's statistically predicted to keep at least 3 clean sheets and score 1 goal if he starts all 9. That's £0.05 in IPD - which covers the commission and leaves a £0.01 profit already. PB could factor in - he won Top Defender just last week in a bronze matchday. Then of course, at 20 years old there's still plenty of space for capital appreciation should fine form shepherd him into the spotlight. It's easy to favour wonderkids for hype, but De Ligt has gone through that phase AND proven himself as a dividend winner already. All appreciation from now is more of a 'certain' than a 'potential'. The next 30 days could see modest IPDs, but a PB potential and 20 year old capital appreciation shouldn't be ignored even for a short-term investment.