Football Index Player Analysis: Renan Lodi
Team: Atletico Madrid, #12
Buy Price: £1.09
Current IS: £0.79
Lodi's playing history is brief. He developed at Atletico Paranaense in the Brazilian top tier. Aged 21, he made a move to Atletico Madrid last summer for a fee of around €20m. The fullback has only played one year in La Liga, but featured 32 times as Atletico finished 3rd in the Spanish League. Lodi also earned 4 caps, from October 2019. In short, this is his first year on the scene.
Brazilian fullbacks have historically dominated Europe, Dani Alves and Marcelo arguably make it into team of the decade. Lodi was acquired to replace long-serving Brazilian left back Felipe Luis and the centre-half hybrid Lucas Hernandez. Big shoes to fill. In his debut season we've seen his ability both on and off the ball, playing a crucial role in Diego Simeone's defensive masterclass. Lodi sits off in the back 4, waiting to lurch on to balls sent to opposition wingers. For this reason, he makes a good number of interceptions per game and can launch Atletico's textbook counterattack effectively. In the UCL, he averages 3 tackles and 2 interceptions per game, posing an engaging battle against opponent wingers and fullbacks who will be more than aware of Atletico's counterattacking abilities.
Summer promos, namely the 5x IPD, offer a unique opportunity to make considerable dividend returns for budget players, Although Atletico have finished La Liga, they are facing RB Leipzig in the quarter finals of the champions league. RBL are without their main man Werner, whilst his old strike partner Poulsen finished his season early with a minor injury, and may still not be match fit. Patrick Schick is the only remaining out and out striker Atletico will face. If you believe in Atletico's defensive abilities, and think RBL without Werner are a shark with no teeth, then there's a chance a clean sheet is on the cards. If Lodi can offer an assist or by chance get on the scoresheet, that's £0.05 or £0.10 straight back. A half decent PB score courtesy of a clean sheet would also put Atletico defenders in the running for Gold matchday dividends on a day when they are the only fixture. Of course, this is speculative, but if Lodi can assist and take the best PB score of a defender on that pitch, he's going to return £0.15 in dividends in just one day. Short-term investments should always be considered with caution, and an exit strategy. So tread carefully in investing now with the assumption it's easy profit.
You've got to be able to sell back to another trader. After promos, or if Atletico get knocked out, there's got to be more on offer in an investment on Lodi.
To some traders, there is more on offer after the summer promos. Atletico aren't all that offensive, but they keep clean sheets and win enough games to score decently on the PB matrix defensively. Lodi needs to be given a little more freedom going forward and to find a few more assists each season to start looking like an elite full back. Of course, he's never going to look like TAA, but an investment at around £0.80 could be enough to see a little capital appreciation given Atletico are regulars in Europe. Over three years, he's unlikely to crash in price, and a bid purchase still sees a little cushion of 'profit' from the outset. Provided he's still a first choice full back in a Top 4 Spanish side, he's 22 so won't face serious capital depreciation. With TOTM a new addition and an improved dividend structure, Lodi will need to up his PB to genuinely compete. However, he's certainly one of the cheaper fullback options in a solid defensive side - and at his age there's still plenty of scope to improve.
Aside from the short-term promos and the mid-term aspect of playing in a solid European side, Lodi also has the long-term growth as one of Brazil's young faces. We've previously written an article on the transition Brazil are undergoing as a National Team, phasing out some veterans and turning their eye to the youngsters. Lodi is set to be one of Brazil's favoured full backs in future International competitions - Marcelo, Dani Alves and Filipe Luis are all in their twilight years. Should Lodi show off a little more creative flair in coming seasons, he'll earn greater reputation on the world stage.
In his first season in a PB league, Renan Lodi has posted average numbers in an unsavoury Atletico side. Experienced FI traders give an arm's length to Atletico knowing their tactics tend to play for a 1-0 win, hardly a PB gold mine.
Lodi's PB max is no eye-opener at 178, and his average of 84 indicates he needs more responsibility in creating chances. Unfortunately, Atletico show no signs of changing their formula as they upset reigning European Champions, Liverpool, through defending and not attacking.
A good investment?
If you'd eyed up Lodi before the summer promotions, you won't get a more attractive opportunity than now. You can competitively bid for around a 25% discount on market value, whilst earning generous IPD; A goal £0.10 and an assist £0.05. Unlikely given Atletico's style of play, but if Lodi was a targeted long term hold in your eyes, it seems now is a logical time. If you're looking for a short term flip, be aware of the very low PB on offer. Although Atletico may have a more favourable draw than some, it'd surprise plenty of traders to see their defensive players posting Star Player scores. Take all Atletico investments with caution, they're a good side but not a PB dream by any stretch.