• David Hammel

Media Madness 2020 Tips

Media Madness 2019

As the massive Media Madness 2020 promotion starts on 27th July running through to 11th September I thought it would be a good opportunity to look at the equivalent promotion in 2019. With a normal football calendar in place the promotion ran from 1st June 2019 until 31st July 2019. There was obviously no football last summer so the promotion ran for a solid 2 months. This years promotion runs alongside the end of Serie A and the European Gold Days in August.

The table below is the media dividends paid during that period.

data above courtesy of indexgain

The period was dominated by the transfer speculation involving Paul Pogba leaving Manchester United and Neymar’s return to Barcelona. Although neither actually happened, this did not prevent holding both players during that period a rewarding one although the uncertainty surrounding both and the future impact on dividends meant that there was actually no capital appreciation on either at that time.

The next beneficiaries of the enhanced media dividends in the top 5 had 1 thing in common. Transfer links to Manchester United. Love them or loath them they do have the biggest media pull when it comes to football index media dividends and identifying a player with a link to Manchester United early can be very lucrative. However, the flip side of that is jumping on the bandwagon late can lead to heavy losses especially if the transfer does not materialize.

Sander Berge Price Chart

1 of the more surprising rumours in January 2020 was the sighting of Sander Berge at Carrington. This quickly led to a flurry of price notifications and the chart below doesn’t do the rise justice. His intraday price reached close to £2 based on a false sighting of a teenage goalkeeper who had visited Carrington on 28th January. Twitter erupted and the national press soon got wind of the story. As quickly as his price exploded, when the truth came out his price tanked and halved in value very quickly when he signed for the less media friendly Sheffield United.

Saul Niguez Price Chart

A more recent and less dramatic example of the Manchester United bias was the rumours that they were interested in Saul Niguez. He is a fine player playing for Atletico Madrid, who are unfashionable in the eyes of experienced Football Index traders due to their PB unfriendly tactics.

Again, reacting to the rumours early and not holding too long can prove to be a lucrative short term flip as traders jump on the bandwagon late due to the United links.

If Pogba stays and signs a new contract then I find it unlikely that United would need to spend upwards of £75m on a central midfielder but if Pogba announces he is not signing a new contract then Saul is definitely one to watch.

Bruno Fernandes Price Chart

A signing not even Ed Woodward could get wrong and a quality player hitting the ground running for the media’s favourite club lead to a price increase from £2.77 on 4th January 2020 to £10.22 by the 14th March. Identifying a player who generates both PB dividends and the inevitable media dividends that performing at the Theatre of Dreams brings is lucrative both short and longer term.

Summer 2020 transfer targets

So with Manchester United securing qualification to the Champions League for 2020/21 with the increased transfer budget and profile this brings then this has had an immediate effect on Jadon Sancho’s price which has increased 32p overnight. Despite the recent emergence of Greenwood the right forward position seems to be the one that United are still keen to strengthen and reports of a £98m bid being rejected by Dortmund have surfaced this morning.

Is there an alternative to Sancho? Recent rumours include Bernardeschi in a possible swap deal for Pogba although that is looking less likely as Pogba appears to want to stay. Grealish won’t be cheap now that Villa have survived and Ferran Torres looks destined for the blue half of Manchester. Maddison appears to be committed to staying at Leicester for at least another season. What is clear however is that the major media outlets love to publish transfer rumours involving the Red Devils and they will be linked with ten times more players than actually sign.

A centre back to partner Maguire also appears to be a priority with links to Ake, Mings, Skriniar and Upamecano emerging recently.

So should I just buy United transfer targets this summer then?

There is definitely money to be made from dividends and capital appreciation in targeting these rumours but it does not come without risks and timing the buy and the sell is vital.

Harry Maguire was the 3rd highest dividend earner last summer. An England international joining the most media friendly club for a world record fee for a defender seems likely to be a cash cow….

Maguire peaked at £2.75 at the start of last season. By the start of January he was trading at £1.70. The PB matrix changing definitely had an adverse effect on central defenders prices but traders who bought at the peak suffered a 38% price decline. A review of his dividend yield shows that he has been a strong performer last season and still has up to 4 gold days left to earn dividends in August.

4th on the list was another English defender who signed for £50m. Wan-Bissaka follows a very similar price trajectory based on his 12 month price chart below. He had a mini spike in December but from a peak price of £2.31 his lowest price hit £1.69 which is a drop of 27%.

So if he dropped less than Maguire he must have earned more dividends than him?

Wrong. Trader sentiment and perception are still major factors in determining price rather than pure statistics.

Lastly, a comparison graph overlaying the 2 courtesy of indexpricealerts.com shows similarities in how their prices have faired over the last 12 months.

Who else is worth buying then?

With the summer dividends of 2019 being dominated by players Manchester United signed, didn’t sign, left or wanted to leave is it worth buying anybody else?

Neymar is one of those rare players who excel in both PB and media dividends which is why he was the long term “king of the index” and he is sure to attract media attention with another summer of rumours about his on/off return to Barcelona plus the remaining Champions League fixtures and early resumption of Ligue 1.

Messi is always a player who attracts column inches but will his age and 12 months remaining on his contract deter traders?

Otherwise, the graphic below confirms what my article states. That the current media monitor massively favours Manchester United over any other club. It will be very interesting to see what the imminent media monitor review will bring in terms of opening up overseas media outlets and any impact this will have on the current situation.

#data courtesy of indexgain for the period since 1st January 2016.

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