World Cup winner. French Champion. Established global superstar. Kylian Mbappé is still just 21 years old yet is becoming a household name around the world.
Aside from transfer rumours, the media presence he's establishing is growing by the month whilst his performances only support his rise to stardom. He's next season's FIFA 21 cover star. He's PSG's wonder boy. He's Neymar's prodigy.
So is Kylian Mbappé a good investment?
In short. Yes. We'll account for the risks, the PB, the media, the consistency, the transfer potential and more in the coming article. But for a simple yes/no - we'd definitely lean towards saying he's good value even at £10+.
Staying in Paris?
The French megastar looks set in Paris. This has historically been deemed a negative aspect by many traders, as 'French football isn't half as decent as the premier league'. That argument is a non-starter in Football Index. PSG tend to dominate their domestic campaign each year. Dominating means high PB, high goal scoring, UCL qualification and pretty much any of the media coming out of France. A transfer to Real Madrid, Liverpool or some other superclub would do a few favours in the short-term off of media speculation, but in the long-run it challenges how successful he could be elsewhere. That's not a bad thing, but it doesn't make it so safe. It means right now, he's not 'hyped', he's proven and stable. He's a £10 player even at PSG.
PSG have historically been a bottlejob in Europe. That doesn't mean they still are and will be for the next three years though. Neymar is lethal in attack, their defence has the highest pass completion in Europe, their midfield is experienced at the elite level. They are still very much one of the best teams in Europe. Let's not forget, they silenced Borussia Dortmund last round.
Staying at PSG simply means more of the same. More French titles, more knockout-rounds in Champions League, more media buzz over how much this player can achieve. If he has become a £10 player at PSG thus far, why would staying hinder him?
There are a few concerns over his ability in PB. On the surface, he's the Golden Boot winner in France 2019/20 and has a prolific strike rate in all competitions. His style of play is great for the matrix. He's a young, an established goal scorer who has already shone on the biggest of stages. Plenty of traders assume he's already paid out big PB dividends. But he hasn't... yet.
As mentioned, PSG dominate their games. They play European matches giving a 1.25x multiplier. They play progressive, dynamic football and utilise the pace of their forwards. This means Mbappe can put up a 200+ score regularly - he's done so 5 times already this season. That raises enough curiosity to consider TOTM prospect as he grows in PB rating.
The stats are strong, but the PB payouts aren't quite there yet.
However, with the increased dividend table out for next season, Ligue 1 returning earlier than other leagues, Champions League yet to play, Mbappe looks as though he's on track to take a PB payout in the coming weeks.
Or at least it did. It's not all that clear how bad the injury he sustained in the Coupe de France yesterday is. Hopefully we'll see the youngster back in action for the UCL tie against Atalanta in a fortnight, If that's the case, 5 x IPDs come into play. A goal or two would pay a nifty few divs plus a high PB score could payout up to £0.18 during the Make It Gold promotion period. Unfortunately though, the injury did not look like one he can walk off. It'd be surprising to see him feature through august - that's not to say now isn't a good time to invest.
His PB looks unlucky if anything. He's consistently posted good scores this season - remember Ligue 1 finished early so it's actually a smaller sample size of games. Mbappe is all set to be a PB dominant, he just needs a friendlier matchup in fixtures to take home the dividends and reward his good scores.
It's tough. Media buzz currently does not regularly favour players outside of the Premier League unless it's surrounding transfer speculation. Young stars take time to build legacy. Mbappe already has that. In fact, when Messi and Ronaldo both finish their careers (that could be years yet...) the camera will be turning to face the next GOAT prospect. Mbappe is in the running on that front, but it's going to take some serious highlights including Euros/WC/UCL to keep his name in English papers.
Without transfers, Mbappe is still not at a stage in his career where the camera is constantly on him. In fact, you'd think off of the back of winning the Coupe de France and sustaining an injury before UCL returns that Mbappe would show some form of media buzz. Alas, it's Richarlison, Fred, Thiago, Peter Crouch and Marcelo who make the Top 5 this morning (9.30 BST, 25/07/20). That's a good indication that the media isn't there for the French superstar right now.
It will take time. Build the legacy. Build the highlights. Compete at the very top for long enough and Mbappe will soon be a more regular feature in English papers. But for as long as he's not playing in England, he's not expected to pick up many media dividends.
The best part of FI, at least for those who remember the glory days pre-share split, is the Capital Appreciation in a young player. Everyone wants a piece of a wonderkid. Everyone loves the hype. The market grows with FOMO (fear of missing out).
The most interesting part of Capapp in the youngsters is how few of them are proven. For example, Bellingham has only played one full season at senior level, and hasn't posted a PB score, yet rose to values exceeding that of De Bruyne at one point this season. Bellingham is currently the 10th most expensive midfielder, and hasn't posted a PB score. That truly demonstrates how powerful hype can be, and how capital appreciation can be an earner without a single matchday dividend.
With Mbappe, the ability is already proven. It's established. He's won titles. He's won a World Cup. He's a starter for a superclub. There's no speculation, or what ifs. He is a star now. Because of this, Mbappe actually defies the market in many ways.
In many cases, young starters actually don't rocket on the index unless there's speculation or a whole host of dividends. TAA for example is a dividend KING, £0.33 PB divs and £0.13 media is far more than Mbappe's total this season, so he doesn't need speculation to fuel his capital appreciation. Sancho rocketed not because of high PB divs, but because of high media divs with links to united over many months.
Many young starters with similar PB dividend earnings like Mbappe haven't risen a fraction as much as the Frenchman, because they haven't got the legacy that Mbappe already has built. Mbappe doesn't need PB and MB to justify his higher share price just yet. Diogo Jota is 23, has £0.24 in PB this season, with 3x 200+ scores. He's around a fifth of the price. Ansu Fati of Barcelona is 17, he's earned £0.16 in PB this season but is a third of the value of Mbappe.
What we're getting at is that Mbappe is not speculated, not hyped and not getting lucky. He doesn't need a transfer for him to hold his value. Traders know how good he is, and how popular he is. That alone is enough for him to be increasing in value as the market grows. When he does hit a STAR PB score, a lot of traders are rewarded, and the FOMO factor kicks in for those that don't hold. Then he rises in value in waves, every time he posts a matchday winning score. The element of speculation is when he will post these scores, not if.
Mbappe over a three year investment would surely yield more PB than he has this season, more media than this season, eventually more speculation on a transfer. He's such a popular player that many new traders would recognise him as 'young, high potential, high PB scorer'. Mbappe will see a lot of 'new money' put into him.
It's a desperate shame to see the youngster on crutches. Many traders would have loved to see him fighting fit for the UCL return - even if he does make a very quick recovery it's doubtful he'll be at 100%. Now would have be an excellent time to onboard the youngster with European Gold days on the horizon.
Regardless of the injury, Mbappe become 3rd most expensive player on the index for a reason. His PB is great, his potential is greater. Though he's not yet won masses of dividends, the 21 year old is building a legacy that will see him appear as one of the greatest in the world in coming seasons - if he hasn't achieved that status already.