Anticipating New PB Dividend Structure?

With PB dividends likely to get an increase in some form this evening, we’re highlighting a handful of different players outside the top-end of the market that have won PB dividends this season and can now be matched for an attractive cut price. As with all of our articles, speculation is to be taken with caution and every trader is entitled to disagree with the futures of these players. To clarify – we have not yet seen the new dividend structure, but anticipate PB dividends rising. Now the Matching Engine is establishing itself in the buyers corner (at least until phase 2 is released), and PB dividends likely increasing, some nifty budget options are out there that could benefit from the recent updates and repay investors both in dividends and capital appreciation in coming seasons.

1. Bernardo Silva

The Portuguese maestro has been trickling down the Top 200 into a deep position below £2.00 in market Buy Value over the course of the season. Matching Engine’s introduction only saw his Instant Sell price further plummet – meaning a bid of £1.55 could have secured the playmaker this week.


Why could this be a good investment?

Bernardo hasn’t been setting the world alight over the course of this season. He’s picked up 7 assists and 5 goals in 30 appearances, of which he’s started 20. That’s not terrible by any means. The issues have been consistency, not helped by the pandemic intermission nor the fact that Guardiola rotates his midfield three regularly. Bernardo was once considered a true right winger, though he’s now featuring in the mezzala role across a midfield three regularly, and settling into it nicely. He’s still only 25. With a wave of new starters coming through at City, and veterans phased out, Bernardo Silva looks to be a very versatile option on the wing or in the midfield. Foden has a great deal of limelight at City, for good reason too, but 7 assists and 5 goals in 20 starts isn’t half bad for a midfield/wing hybrid. Silva looks like he could offer more in a dynamic city side that will no doubt be challenging Liverpool next season for the title. The 4-0 victory last week demonstrated they mean business; if Bernardo can feature regularly he’d surely post some respectable numbers worth more than his £1.55 you’d pick him up at. He’s not by any means a prolific investment, but his history of 200+ scores this season suggests he could on occasion win PB dividends. When you add Euros for Portugal into the equation, a bid in the range of £1.60 looks pretty good value in our opinion, given it’s unlikely he’ll depreciate in value with 3 more years at City.


2. Harry Maguire

A bid in the region of £1.65 could pick up a few shares in Harry Maguire this week, who has a Market value of £1.97. With an attractive list of fixtures ahead to end their domestic campaign, plus Europa League football yet to play, Maguire has a good chance now to put up good PB scores.

Why is could this be a good investment?

Short term isn’t the full picture. Yes, the fixture list looks good and a few IPDs or PB ratings could do the investment a some favours, but the long run could see a great return. Our recent article on the United Bias outlines why their players are so valuable on Football Index right now. Media dividends are always a factor at Manchester United. Maguire, being the captain, will get his name in the papers every now and again. On top of that, playing for England at the Euros will certainly do no harm for the investment. United are looking at a Top 4 finish. Maguire is pretty much the first name on the team sheet at Old Trafford. Add to that a history of decent PB scores, reinforced by proven dividend payouts (4x position, 2x star), and the £1.65 price-tag via bidding looks great.



3. Thiago Alcantara

The Spaniard has been linked to a move to Liverpool, but that’s not what excites a dividend chasing trader – given he’d be coming from a huge PB side at Bayern anyway. Traders could put a bid in around the £2.15 per share mark this week. In return, they’d be expecting a few PB dividends in the next three years as well as a potential media buzz from ongoing transfer links.

Why could this be a good investment?

Simply put, Thiago is capable of putting on a masterclass in midfield to rally up a huge PB score. Of the 33 games he’s featured in this season, he’s hit 200+ on 8 occasions. Furthermore, he’s part of the 300 club, having hit a PB score of 336. He consistently puts on a good rating (PB average) but equally can turn it up to hit high PB peaks – exactly what to look for in a PB dividend player. Although his PB dividends aren’t all that lucrative just yet, his future is still hanging in the balance and only a top club would be able to afford his services – likely meaning a good PB side will take him. That presumably means regular champions league football for the three years of his career’s peak. A rational trader would surely be expecting a decent return through dividends without particularly worrying about capital depreciation. Only 7 players - Messi, Kimmich, KDB, Kroos, Neymar, TAA and Ronaldo – have posted more 225+ scores this season, all of which are considerably more expensive without being particularly young (bar TAA). In short, it’s a lower risk investment than either extreme end of the market whilst an expectancy of regular dividends could fuel capital appreciation or prolong his decline.




4. Gabriel Jesus

City’s young forward has been progressively phased in to replace the ageing Aguero for a couple of seasons now. Guardiola looks content with the player’s development, as he continues to play him up tops to finish the season strongly. The Brazilian hasn’t been a huge dividend winner just yet, but a bid shy of £3 could have landed the youngster during the match against Newcastle this week.

Why could this be a good investment?

At 23 years old, Jesus still has some growing room in terms of Capital Appreciation, so even if the dividends didn’t fall his way, there’ll still be an interest in this player in a year or two – so you’ll likely be able to cash out at a similar price that you acquired him for if he continues at City. In the meantime, you can enjoy his growth as a player. He’s posted 4 PB scores above 200 this season, and most recently bagged a score of 174 in 61 minutes against the Toons. At under £3, you’ll be getting a player destined for dividends and capital appreciation as the market grows.



5. Alexsandr Golovin

We’ll continue with the somewhat younger yet affordable players lost in the mid-range trench on Football Index since the release of Matching Engine. Golovin is not a household name by any stretch, but at 24 years old, he’s establishing himself as a top player at AS Monaco this season. A bid under £2 would have been in a good region to get matched this week.

Why could this be a good investment?

With anticipation of PB dividends increasing in some form, high performing PB scorer has a chance to earn more. If that player is lower value, you can recoup more of your investment through dividends alone – hence a player under £2 that you intend on exploiting through PB but still has years left to grow is a fantastic option. There’s a lower risk that his price is hyped, as he’s older yet more proven than wonderkids, but his risk of capital depreciation is low as he’s not hit the latter 20s when most players reach their peak. Hence, onboarding him for a couple of years would likely return a few dividends without risking the inability to sell on again for a loss. Safety. His dividend potential is fantastic, as the table shows, as he’s hit 250+ on 3 occasions this season, winning Top Midfielder three times. Only Rodri, Ceballos, Skov and Pavard are players under £4 in share price AND under 25 years old this season to have scored 200+ on four occasions. None of those can match frequency of 250+ scores though, indicating Golovin has a little more in the tank to edge up a good PB total. Remember, he’s at Monaco. A move to a bigger and more successful European side could do his PB even more favours.


And Finally… AN OUTSIDE PUNT


Marcel Halstenberg

A relatively unknown player on FI, with relatively unspectacular stats on the surface – 3 goals and 3 assists. But like all hidden gems on the index, it takes a scratch beneath the surface to recognise a potential bargain. A bid just over £0.90 could have picked up the RB Leipzig fullback this week.

Why could this be a good investment?

With increasing dividends, proven PB bosses have generally risen across the board, particularly in the higher end of the market. But at the low end, plenty of traders are nervous to put money into players that will struggle to be sold on, on the basis that they’ll never get a decent return on investment due to poor Instant Sell (IS). Halstenberg has returned £0.11 in PB this season, whilst his top 5 scores have been plenty respectable for a player around the £1 mark. Only TAA, Sergio Ramos and Dani Carvajal have posted 225+ as defenders as frequently as Halstenberg; that’s 4 occasions this season. It’s a sure sign he’s capable of regularly being in the contention of PB dividends throughout a season. Taking a punt in the low end could prove risky, but Halstenberg is only 28, so should hold steady in price for a couple of years yet as the market continues to grow. He could provide a good return of PB dividends before being able to sell again for presumably a price. Nonetheless, if he can pick up PB dividends and play regular Champions League Football under Nagelsmann, he’s an ‘outside’ bet with great PB stats to backup any reason to invest.



All match stats acquired from Transfermarkt and Whoscored. All Football Index PB data has been obtained through membership at Index Gain or Football Index itself.

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