5 Reasons Manchester United Players are Undervalued
As I sit here writing my 1st article thingamajig on Thursday 30th July 2020, the day before a random Friday 34°C heat-wave, followed by the 1st installment of 1/4 August cash-drops – I have absolute confidence as a deluded and desperate Arsenal fan (spoiler alert) by saying that United players are currently ‘undervalued’ on the Index.
Some of you may be wondering ‘how on earth are United players undervalued when 4/10 top players on the index play their football at Old Trafford?’ Well I’m glad you’ve asked. Let’s start by taking an in-depth look at those 4 players in particular; Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, Mason Greenwood & Paul Pogba.
(July 9th) Market Buy Price = £11.54
(July 30th) Market Buy Price = £10.40
Market Buy Price Difference = -£1.14 (9.88%)
(July 30th) IS Price = £9.25 (current spread = -11.14%)
*July 9th Market Price - Current IS price difference = -£2.29 (-19.84%)
(July 9th) Market Buy Price = £10.14
(July 30th) Market Buy Price = £9.43
Market Buy Price Difference = -£0.71 (-7%)
(July 30th) IS Price = £8.26 (spread = -12.40%)
*(July 9th) Market Price - (July 30th) IS price difference = -£1.88 (-18.54%)
(July 9th) Market Buy Price = £7.92
(July 30th) Market Buy Price = £7.77
Market Buy Price Difference = -£0.15 (-1.89%)
(July 30th) IS Price = £6.84 (spread = -11.96%)
*(July 9th) Market Price - (July 30th) IS price difference = -£1.08 (-13.63%)
(July 9th) Market Buy Price = £7.85
(July 30th) Market Buy Price = £7.24
Market Buy Price Difference = -£0.61 (-7.77%)
(July 30th) IS Price = £6.11 (spread = -15.60%)
*(July 9th) Market Price - (July 30th) IS price difference = -£1.74 (-22.16%)
What does this all mean?
As you can see from the graphs above, each player has taken a considerable dip over the past 3 weeks. If you take in to account the total value dropped, coupled with fallen spreads, you end up with a huge potential ‘bid opportunity’. As Europe’s leagues all come to an abrupt end we now reach a point in the market where traders start to turn their attention to the UCL and Europa League competitions.
So why are United players undervalued?
1) Huge Spreads – Bruno’s spread currently has an 11% gap , Greenwood’s 12%, Rashford’s 11% and Pogba's 15%. These players all have a price ceiling, much higher than their current market buy price, let alone huge spreads on offer to astute bidders. If you pick these players up using the Matching Engine, whether their price appreciates or not you will still capture a premium player at a huge ‘discount’.
2) Previous Cash Drop – In the last cash drop which took place on the 4th July, most notably, Bruno and Greenwood both rose significantly. Granted, United did beat Bournemouth 5-2 on the same day and that would have certainly influenced traders to buy, however, with 4 cash-drops landing this August, the 1st being today, we may see many traders once again flocking to United assets; ultimately reducing player spreads and increasing share value.
3) Europa League Favourites – United are favourites with bookmakers to be crowned Europa League winners @5/; I can’t imagine many neutral fans disagreeing with that after such formidable finish to the season. United currently have a 5-0 lead against LASK and one would presume that they’ll progress to the Quarter Finals. Each and every game they play in the competition will be a gold match-day, meaning further opportunity for these top tier players to earn PB dividends against arguably lower oppositions. Depending on how far they go in the competition they could end up to 4 games if they’re able to reach the final on the 21st August.
4) x5 Enhanced IPD Potential – Not only do United players have the chance to win gold match-day dividends with less competition, but there’s also the x5IPD summer promotion to benefit from throughout August. United scored 5 goals in the reverse fixture against LASK, if they can continue their fine form in front of goal then their forward players may be able to snap up some tasty x5IPD pay-outs.
5) Media Madness Potential – United players tend to dominate the Media on the index general, let alone the improved Media Madness promotion which is 60% up from last summer. Media Madness runs until the 12th September (roughly 6 weeks) and United players will surely benefit, even more so if they were to reach the latter stages of the Europa League. Take a look at how United dominate the top 5 media places over specific time periods;
Summer 2019 (May-September 2019)
2020 (January-July 2020)
Last 30 Days (30th Jun -30th July 2020)
Get the latest Media Madness tips here
Be Careful - Revamped Media Matrix Imminent!
As the charts above suggest, Media heavily swings in United’s favour. Adam Cole (CEO of Football Index) recently told traders that a new and improved media matrix will be implemented at the end of July 2020. For those who have been on the index for a little while now will know to take time-scales from FI with a pinch of salt. However, whichever the date, FI will certainly improve the Media Matrix. Will this have an impact on the ‘United Bias’, who knows. (for more information on the ‘United Bias’ please click here) Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. Therefore be careful not to fully depend on Media Madness – although I do still expect United players to dominate more than any other team on the Index.
Expect Extended Break
Major Media outlets have reported that teams who reach the latter stages of European Competitions will be allowed an ‘extended 30 day break before the new season’.
The Premier League is due back on the 12th September, therefore if United were to reach the Europa League final on the 21st of August, then they should be due to miss the first two game weeks of the 20/21 season. As a result, you may come to find that United player prices start to decrease if they were to progress further in to the Europa League. Therefore, you either may want to exit the trade once united are out of the competition, or hold out and ride the Media Madness promotion until United return back to the Premier League on Saturday 12th September.
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